Russia Day Under the Sign of Fear: Why the Kremlin Responds to the Crimean Crisis with Terror Against Ukrainian Cities

Just a few months ago, one of the Kremlin’s key victory narratives was the image of Crimea as an impregnable fortress. Today, the situation has changed. The question is no longer whether Ukraine is capable of creating problems for Russian logistics on the peninsula. The question is how Russia will respond to those problems.

Recent weeks have revealed a troubling pattern. The greater the pressure on the transport and fuel infrastructure of occupied Crimea, the more aggressive the Kremlin’s rhetoric becomes regarding strikes on Ukrainian cities.

Reports of fuel shortages, supply difficulties, and fears of further deterioration are appearing increasingly often on the occupied peninsula. For local residents, this is a visible sign that the war no longer exists only on television screens or in isolated strikes against military facilities. The war has reached Crimea itself and is beginning to affect everyday life on the peninsula.

For Moscow, however, the problem extends far beyond economics, transportation, or even the daily lives of local residents. Crimea is a key military hub for Russia’s presence in southern Ukraine. That is why any strikes on logistics—especially on this scale—create consequences that cannot be offset by political statements or television propaganda.

This appears particularly symbolic on June 12, Russia Day. A holiday that for years served as a demonstration of state power is this year accompanied by defeat and humiliation. Instead of celebrating new victories, the Kremlin is forced to explain supply problems in the occupied territories and strengthen security measures around its own military infrastructure.

It is at moments like these that the true logic of Russia’s strategy becomes visible.

When the Russian army cannot demonstrate convincing results on the battlefield, when the capture of a few ruined villages is presented as a major success, and when logistics begin to collapse under Ukrainian strikes, the Kremlin returns to the one instrument that always remains at its disposal:

Terror against the civilian population.

According to available information, the Russian leadership is considering one of the largest combined attacks of the entire full-scale war.

The scale of such a strike demonstrates that Russia continues to seek psychological effects where military results have become virtually unattainable.

This has long been a defining characteristic of Russia’s military campaign. The worse the situation develops at the front, the more resources are directed toward attacks on civilian targets. The harder it becomes to explain the absence of victories to the population, the more missiles are launched at residential neighborhoods.

Russian officials often justify such attacks as an effort to “force Ukraine into peace.” In reality, they serve a different purpose: concealing from Russian society the fact that even in the fifth year of the war, the Kremlin remains incapable of achieving any of its original strategic objectives. The only goal it appeared to have secured — the land corridor to Crimea — is now slipping from its grasp under the strikes of Ukrainian drones.

That is why the main symbol of this year’s Russia Day is not flags, concerts, or ceremonial speeches.

Its main symbol is fear.

Fear of Crimea’s logistical vulnerability.

Fear of the depletion of military capabilities.

Fear of having to explain to Russian society why a war that was supposed to last only a few weeks has now entered its fifth year.

And it is this fear that is increasingly being transformed into missiles and drones directed against Ukrainian cities. Terror is the only instrument left in the aggressor’s arsenal.