The Battle for the Sky: Achieving Air Supremacy
Opinion of Oleksandr Kovalenko on the Russian ballistic missiles and Omsk
The Omsk oil refinery is the largest complex in the Russian Federation that had not yet been struck. It is not just the last intact facility; it is the largest of all existing oil refineries. You could say there were only 11 refineries of this type in total, and the Omsk one is the biggest.
This strike was extremely complex because the facility is located more than 2,500 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. While we had the capability to hit the other 10 recently, this one posed a problem. Our drones simply couldn't fly that far.
Following the necessary modernization, we gained the capability to strike the Omsk refinery. Just a few days ago, sometime last week, our drones were already flying over Omsk. That was a testing phase, but it was followed by an actual strike.
Now, Russia is left without the majority of its oil refineries. The fuel crisis currently emerging in the Russian Federation will only continue to grow.
Regarding air defense, ballistic missiles remain our primary problem. This is an issue we cannot solve on our own. While we have resolved the threat of Shahed-136s and other small, subsonic, low-flying targets using our own anti-aircraft interceptor drones — meaning we no longer ask our partners for help in this specific area — and while we also have the capability to counter subsonic cruise missiles, when it comes to ballistic weapons, we are entirely dependent on our Western partners.
Ballistic targets can only be intercepted by PAC-3 missiles from the Patriot system or the latest modifications of the Aster-30 SAMP/T missiles. The manufacturers of the Aster-30 SAMP/T can only produce a few units per month.
If we look at the PAC-3 missiles for the Patriot, Lockheed Martin produces approximately 500 to 650 PAC-3 missiles a year. Yet, in just half a year, as of today, the Russians have already used more than 550 ballistic missiles against Ukraine. And you need more than one PAC-3 to intercept a single ballistic missile.
It is a rare exception when a single missile can shoot down one 9M723 ballistic missile. Usually, it takes two. Sometimes, for a guaranteed interception, three missiles are required.
Therefore, we should have had 1,500 PAC-3 missiles for the first half of 2026. We did not have them. That is exactly why, in the first week of July, the Russians launched 49 9M723 missiles, and we were only able to intercept four.
This is a serious problem and a serious challenge, not just for Ukraine. If our Western partners do not resolve this issue — not only regarding the supply of these missiles for our country to protect our airspace — another question arises: are Western countries capable of defending themselves against ballistic missiles from the Russian Federation? Because it seems they simply lack the technical and technological capabilities to do so.
Therefore, they are defenseless against ballistic strikes from Russia. Meanwhile, Russia, as we can see, is actually scaling up its use of ballistics.
Today, Ukrainian air defense has its own domestically developed anti-ballistic missile. However, we cannot fully test it because we lack the necessary equipment. We have already reached agreements with our partners regarding radar systems. Germany is helping us in this regard, and there is significant support from Sweden, but the entire system has not yet been fully assembled. The missile exists, and it needs to be tested. Only after the missile undergoes testing and the complete system is assembled will full-scale tests take place. Only then will we be able to assess how effective our anti-ballistic system truly is. I think this will take several months, depending on how our partners supply us with the necessary range of products, including radars and radar systems.
But considering that its overall production cost is already lower than that of the Patriot system, I believe this is exactly the system that will become competitive with the Patriot — just as our anti-aircraft interceptor drones became competitive with all Western short-range air defense systems against small, low-flying, subsonic targets.
Dmytro Havryliuk on partner`s aid
Here, too, we will be able to start a revolution. We just need to wait; it takes time.
However, while we need time and have to wait for our partners to provide all the necessary technology and equipment, the strikes will continue. And by the time we scale up the production of our anti-ballistic missiles, more time will pass. Therefore, I believe that from the initial stage of the first tests to full-scale serial production capable of meeting the monthly required volume of these interceptors, at least a year will pass.
IESS Chief Analyst Valerii Vins on attack on Kyiv
Kyiv, as the capital of the country in war for the last decade, suffers Russian attacks at least every ten days for the last several months. Moreover, from the previous combined drones-missiles attack on the night of 2nd of July to the last attack – this night – was only several days.
4 days ago, damage was recorded in all districts of Kyiv, with direct hits on high-rise buildings and damage to around 20 buildings, hotels, an ambulance station, and a zoo. Russians have killed at least 30 people. More than 90 other civilians have been injured.
Today, in spite of 10 hours after the air alert ending sirens, it is known that at least 22 people were killed and 87 others were injured across Ukraine as a result of the attack, including seven children, four rescue workers, and one police officer. The count of the wounded and dead people is still rising.
In fact, every other attack on Kyiv is worse than previous, because Ukraine relies heavily on partner`s aid, which mentioned partners had guaranteed in terms of PURL. However, the situation with air defence remains a very painful point of the Russo-Ukraine war, because Ukraine just doesn`t receive the needed amount of aid.
This topic might be up for discussion, but: what`s the point to blame Ukraine for the emptiness of air defence missiles, while there are so many partnerships being conducted in this sphere?
Zelenskyy himself noted that Kyiv is ready to trade its guaranteed missiles by the contracts with developers for the immediate aid. “Right here, right now”. Four days have passed since this statement, and Kyiv is once again under cruel, cynical and deadly attack by Moscow. I must note that those attacks are being planned and verified by the highest people in the Russian army and Kremlin. Strikes, 99% of which aimed at civilian infrastructure, are constantly approved by the highest Russian order.
So, in fact, we`re dealing with terrorism as a state`s strategy of international relations. Moscow no more has enough “firepower” to change situation on battlefield on front, so it is continuing to kill Ukrainians as the part of “conflict regulation” as Kremlin speaks usually.
The more Russia struggles from its own decision to “denazificate” and “demilitarizate” Ukraine, the more “wounded bear in corner” kill civilians in agony.
According to the Financial Times, Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries have intensified dramatically in 2026, with at least 194 incidents recorded – an elevenfold surge year-on-year. Data from Rochan Consulting highlights May as a peak month with 16 successful operations. By June, repeated strikes on Moscow’s only refinery led to critical fuel deficits and significant fires.
The Financial Times emphasizes that with over half of the Russian Federation's regions now rationing gasoline and citizens facing hours-long queues at pumps, Kyiv's systematic targeting of energy infrastructure has effectively brought the realities of the war directly to the Russian domestic population.
So, once again, follow “my hands”: while Ukraine targets the most vital and precious “lifeline” of Russia` war machine (oil refineries and military productions), Moscow is targeting Ukrainian houses, schools, hospitals, kindergartens, small businesses and so on. I repeat: the most targeted objects of Ukraine by the Russian army are exclusively civilian buildings in free-from-industry aerials.
In the meantime, Russian` war objects being obliterated by Ukrainian drones and missiles on a daily basis for the last 1.5 years, and more specifically – last several months.
Speaking of Ukrainian missiles programs, specifically anti-aerial segment, I must admit the unique private AD: Ukrainian businesses are stepping up to protect their skies. As of April 2026, 24 companies have been officially authorized to carry out air defense tasks. In regions like Odesa, private companies are taking initiative by fully funding and deploying their own mobile fire groups to defend their facilities and staff from incoming Russian airstrikes.
Everyone already knows about P1-SUN drones as part of our battle against kamikaze drones 24/7, so to speak, this part of anti-air defence still growing and developing. But, by being realistic, the most challenging part of defence for us are ballistic missiles.
Not only Kyiv, but also at least big cities across the Ukrainian “left bank” region beyond the Dnipro River are under ballistic strikes every day. However, there is a crucial breakthrough on this exact issue. Ukraine has successfully tested its own domestically produced anti-aircraft missile designed specifically to intercept ballistic targets. According to the Ukrainian defense company Fire Point, the new missile has passed all trials and is fully ready for deployment. The chief designer of the project, Denys Shtilerman, noted that during testing, the missile demonstrated high manoeuvrability, successfully executing extremely aggressive control commands from the C2 center at maximum acceleration.
Furthermore, the developers are actively expanding international cooperation to enhance the system. Fire Point has secured an agreement with the German defense manufacturer Hensoldt to supply state-of-the-art radars, which will be integrated into this new Ukrainian anti-aircraft complex, officially named "Freya".
While Ukraine continues to urge its partners to fulfil their guarantees, these domestic innovations — from private mobile fire groups to the new "Freya" anti-ballistic system — prove that the country is aggressively forging its own shield to protect its civilians from Russian terror.